WAS
MIA
Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MIAMiami Heat
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Heat can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- Simulation: the Heat win 6,360 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Heat 12th (+1.7), Wizards 30th (-11.4).
- Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Heat may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 3,640 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Heat rank 22nd of 30 in points allowed per game (118.8).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -4.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 237.7 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · MIA n/a | WAS 36% · MIA 64% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +175 · MIA -175 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 121, Wizards 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 12 and Heat by 21.
Side by side
| WAS | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | MIA 140 @ WAS 117 | MIA |
| 2026-04-04 | 2025-26 | WAS 136 @ MIA 152 | MIA |
| 2026-03-10 | 2025-26 | WAS 129 @ MIA 150 | MIA |
| 2026-02-08 | 2025-26 | MIA 132 @ WAS 101 | MIA |
| 2025-04-13 | 2024-25 | WAS 119 @ MIA 118 | WAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works