WAS
MIL
Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MILMilwaukee Bucks
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Bucks can win
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- Home court: the Bucks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Bucks win 5,130 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Wizards 18th (35.5%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bucks 11th (74.2%), Wizards 30th (70.0%).
Disadvantages Why Bucks may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 4,870 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Wizards -2.2, Bucks -10.8.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Bucks lose by 16 or more.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to the Wizards in our ratings.
- Weak spot: the Bucks rank 30th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (21.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIL -0.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.1 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · MIL n/a | WAS 49% · MIL 51% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +105 · MIL -105 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bucks 117, Wizards 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 16 and Bucks by 17.
Side by side
| WAS | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | -6.4 25 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 110.1 24 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 116.5 27 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 56.3% 3 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 25 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 21.7% 30 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 38.4% 2 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 100.6 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 2026-27 | MIL 116 @ WAS 128 | WAS |
| 2026-01-29 | 2025-26 | MIL 99 @ WAS 109 | WAS |
| 2025-12-31 | 2025-26 | WAS 114 @ MIL 113 | WAS |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-26 | MIL 126 @ WAS 129 | WAS |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-26 | WAS 120 @ MIL 133 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works