WAS
MIN
Washington Wizards @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
79% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.2 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Wizards -2.2.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.6), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 7,910 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 2,090 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 6 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
- Rest days: teams sometimes sit healthy players, which isn't always on the injury report early.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -10.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.7 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · MIN n/a | WAS 21% · MIN 79% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +378 · MIN -378 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 122, Wizards 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 6 and Timberwolves by 27.
Side by side
| WAS | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | 2025-26 | MIN 141 @ WAS 115 | MIN |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-26 | WAS 109 @ MIN 120 | MIN |
| 2025-02-01 | 2024-25 | WAS 105 @ MIN 103 | WAS |
| 2025-01-13 | 2024-25 | MIN 120 @ WAS 106 | MIN |
| 2024-04-09 | 2023-24 | WAS 121 @ MIN 130 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works