WAS
NYK
Washington Wizards @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
78% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.7 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
- The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- Simulation: the Knicks win 7,820 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 2,180 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -10.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.6 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · NYK n/a | WAS 22% · NYK 78% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +359 · NYK -359 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 118, Wizards 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 7 and Knicks by 27.
Side by side
| WAS | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | 2025-26 | WAS 113 @ NYK 145 | NYK |
| 2026-02-03 | 2025-26 | NYK 132 @ WAS 101 | NYK |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-26 | WAS 102 @ NYK 119 | NYK |
| 2025-03-22 | 2024-25 | WAS 103 @ NYK 122 | NYK |
| 2024-12-30 | 2024-25 | NYK 126 @ WAS 106 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works