WAS
OKC
Washington Wizards @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
80% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.2 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- The Thunder' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 6th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- The Thunder' offense (115.4 points per 100 possessions, 4th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- Simulation: the Thunder win 7,970 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 2,030 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -11.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.6 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · OKC n/a | WAS 20% · OKC 80% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +394 · OKC -394 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 119, Wizards 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 6 and Thunder by 28.
Side by side
| WAS | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | 2025-26 | OKC 132 @ WAS 111 | OKC |
| 2025-10-30 | 2025-26 | WAS 108 @ OKC 127 | OKC |
| 2025-01-12 | 2024-25 | OKC 136 @ WAS 95 | OKC |
| 2024-12-23 | 2024-25 | WAS 105 @ OKC 123 | OKC |
| 2024-02-23 | 2023-24 | WAS 106 @ OKC 147 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works