WAS
ORL
Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ORLOrlando Magic
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Magic can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Magic 17th (-0.2), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Simulation: the Magic win 6,290 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Point differential per game: Magic 17th (-0.1), Wizards 30th (-11.4).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Magic 5th (75.2%), Wizards 30th (70.0%).
Disadvantages Why Magic may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Wizards -2.2, Magic -12.5.
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 3,710 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Wizards 18th (35.5%), Magic 29th (34.0%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Magic lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 29th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ORL -4.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.7 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · ORL n/a | WAS 37% · ORL 63% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +169 · ORL -169 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 118, Wizards 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 13 and Magic by 21.
Side by side
| WAS | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-3 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | 2025-26 | WAS 131 @ ORL 136 | ORL |
| 2026-03-03 | 2025-26 | WAS 109 @ ORL 126 | ORL |
| 2026-01-06 | 2025-26 | ORL 112 @ WAS 120 | WAS |
| 2025-11-01 | 2025-26 | ORL 125 @ WAS 94 | ORL |
| 2025-04-03 | 2024-25 | ORL 109 @ WAS 97 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works