WAS
PHI
Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
70% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the 76ers win 6,970 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): 76ers 20th (-0.9), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Home court: the 76ers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The 76ers' offense (111.2 points per 100 possessions, 19th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 3,030 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the 76ers lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 27th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.7%).
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 26th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.3%).
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 23rd of 30 in three-point shooting (34.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -6.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.5 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · PHI n/a | WAS 30% · PHI 70% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +230 · PHI -230 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: 76ers 119, Wizards 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 10 and 76ers by 24.
Side by side
| WAS | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | -0.9 20 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 111.2 19 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 112.1 16 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 52.7% 27 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 11 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.1 5 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 25.1% 18 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 34.7% 23 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 102.7 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | 2025-26 | PHI 153 @ WAS 131 | PHI |
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | WAS 110 @ PHI 131 | PHI |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-26 | WAS 102 @ PHI 121 | PHI |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-26 | PHI 139 @ WAS 134 | PHI |
| 2025-04-09 | 2024-25 | PHI 122 @ WAS 103 | PHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works