WAS
SAC
Washington Wizards @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
WASWashington Wizards
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Wizards can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Wizards -2.2, Kings -16.6.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to the Wizards in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Wizards win 5,520 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Wizards' shooting (53.5% eFG%, 21st in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
- Three-point shooting: Wizards 18th (35.5%), Kings 30th (33.8%).
Disadvantages Why Wizards may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 4,480 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Wizards lose by 15 or more.
- Body clock: the Wizards cross 3 time zones.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Kings 14th (14.1), Wizards 23rd (15.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | WAS -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.9 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · SAC n/a | WAS 55% · SAC 45% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS -123 · SAC +123 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 117, Wizards 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 18 and Kings by 15.
Side by side
| WAS | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 0-5 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | 2025-26 | SAC 112 @ WAS 116 | WAS |
| 2026-01-16 | 2025-26 | WAS 115 @ SAC 128 | SAC |
| 2025-04-02 | 2024-25 | SAC 111 @ WAS 116 | WAS |
| 2025-01-19 | 2024-25 | WAS 100 @ SAC 123 | SAC |
| 2024-03-21 | 2023-24 | SAC 102 @ WAS 109 | WAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works