WAS
SAS
Washington Wizards @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
83% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.1 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Spurs win 8,280 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Spurs' offense (115.2 points per 100 possessions, 5th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- The Spurs' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 8th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 1,720 of 10,000 simulations (17%). A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 5 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -12.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.8 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · SAS n/a | WAS 17% · SAS 83% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +481 · SAS -481 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 122, Wizards 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 5 and Spurs by 29.
Side by side
| WAS | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | 2025-26 | SAS 124 @ WAS 113 | SAS |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-26 | WAS 94 @ SAS 119 | SAS |
| 2025-02-10 | 2024-25 | SAS 131 @ WAS 121 | SAS |
| 2024-11-13 | 2024-25 | WAS 130 @ SAS 139 | SAS |
| 2024-01-29 | 2023-24 | WAS 118 @ SAS 113 | WAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works