WAS
TOR
Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
77% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.1 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Wizards -2.2.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 7,690 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.9 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 2,310 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 20th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (73.6%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 20th of 30 in points per game (114.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -9.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.5 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · TOR n/a | WAS 23% · TOR 77% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +332 · TOR -332 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 120, Wizards 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 7 and Raptors by 26.
Side by side
| WAS | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 2026-27 | TOR 112 @ WAS 102 | TOR |
| 2026-02-28 | 2025-26 | TOR 134 @ WAS 125 | TOR |
| 2025-12-26 | 2025-26 | TOR 117 @ WAS 138 | WAS |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-26 | WAS 110 @ TOR 140 | TOR |
| 2025-03-24 | 2024-25 | TOR 112 @ WAS 104 | TOR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works