WAS
UTA
Washington Wizards @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
UTAUtah Jazz
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Jazz can win
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Jazz win 5,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Jazz' offense (111.1 points per 100 possessions, 20th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- The Jazz' shooting (53.6% eFG%, 20th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Jazz 8th (0.22), Wizards 26th (0.18).
Disadvantages Why Jazz may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 4,550 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- The Wizards' shooting (53.5% eFG%, 21st in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Jazz lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Jazz rank 30th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (57.6%).
- Weak spot: the Jazz rank 30th of 30 in points allowed per game (125.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | UTA -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.4 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · UTA n/a | WAS 46% · UTA 55% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +120 · UTA -120 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 119, Wizards 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 15 and Jazz by 18.
Side by side
| WAS | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | 2025-26 | WAS 133 @ UTA 110 | WAS |
| 2026-03-05 | 2025-26 | UTA 122 @ WAS 112 | UTA |
| 2025-03-19 | 2024-25 | WAS 112 @ UTA 128 | UTA |
| 2025-03-05 | 2024-25 | UTA 122 @ WAS 125 | WAS |
| 2024-03-04 | 2023-24 | WAS 115 @ UTA 127 | UTA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works