FLA
UGA
Florida vs Georgia
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Our pick
UGAGeorgia Bulldogs
89% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 89% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Georgia can win
- Elo rating: worth about 12.3 points to Georgia in our ratings.
- Simulation: Georgia win 8,920 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Georgia +8.0, Florida -14.7.
- Georgia's passing game (9.2 yards, 11th in FBS) faces the Florida defense, which ranks 96th against it.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 3.5 points to Georgia in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Georgia may not
- Upset odds: Florida win 1,080 of 10,000 simulations (11%). A 89% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Georgia lose by 1 or more.
- Field goal percentage: Florida rank 13th (91.7%), Georgia 85th (70.0%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Single-game variance: a couple of turnovers or a special-teams score can swing a college game by two touchdowns.
- Availability: college football has no league-wide injury report. The ACC and Big 12 post availability reports about 2 hours before kickoff; other conferences may not.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | UGA -18.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.2 |
| Win chance | FLA n/a · UGA n/a | FLA 11% · UGA 89% |
| Fair moneyline | FLA +828 · UGA -828 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Georgia 34, Florida 14.
- 80% of simulations land between Florida by 1 and Georgia by 39.
Side by side
| FLA | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 6-1 |
| 39.6 9 | Points per game | 43.0 3 |
| 28.3 106 | Points allowed | 15.9 16 |
| 6.4 49 | Yards per play | 8.0 1 |
| 6.4 103 | Yards per play allowed | 5.0 15 |
| -0.1 85 | Interception margin/game | -0.1 85 |
| 9.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 8.3% 22 |
| 1643 38 | Elo rating | 2023 4 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | 2025 Wk 10 | Georgia 24 @ Florida 20 | UGA |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024 Wk 10 | Florida 20 @ Georgia 34 | UGA |
| 2023-10-28 | 2023 Wk 9 | Georgia 43 @ Florida 20 | UGA |
| 2022-10-29 | 2022 Wk 9 | Florida 20 @ Georgia 42 | UGA |
| 2021-10-30 | 2021 Wk 9 | Georgia 34 @ Florida 7 | UGA |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.