MSST
TEX
Mississippi State @ Texas
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Our pick
TEXTexas Longhorns
89% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 89% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Texas can win
- Elo rating: worth about 11.1 points to Texas in our ratings.
- Simulation: Texas win 8,920 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texas +0.3, Mississippi State -24.0.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 2.5 points to Texas in our ratings.
- Home field: Texas play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
Disadvantages Why Texas may not
- Plays of 20+ yards per game: Mississippi State rank 35th (5.1), Texas 108th (3.4) of 138 FBS teams.
- Upset odds: Mississippi State win 1,080 of 10,000 simulations (11%). A 89% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texas lose by 1 or more.
- Weak spot: Texas rank 123rd of 138 in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (8.9%).
- Weak spot: Texas rank 108th of 138 in plays of 20+ yards per game (3.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TEX -18.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.9 |
| Win chance | MSST n/a · TEX n/a | MSST 11% · TEX 89% |
| Fair moneyline | MSST +823 · TEX -823 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Texas 35, Mississippi State 17.
- 80% of simulations land between Mississippi State by 1 and Texas by 39.
Side by side
| MSST | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 30.0 61 | Points per game | 30.7 57 |
| 27.7 102 | Points allowed | 19.1 29 |
| 6.4 57 | Yards per play | 6.0 84 |
| 6.3 96 | Yards per play allowed | 4.6 7 |
| -0.6 120 | Interception margin/game | -0.1 85 |
| 5.9% 70 | Sacks per dropback | 6.9% 47 |
| 1555 58 | Elo rating | 1902 9 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | 2025 Wk 9 | Texas 45 @ Mississippi State 38 | TEX |
| 2024-09-28 | 2024 Wk 5 | Mississippi State 13 @ Texas 35 | TEX |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.