ARIZ
TTU
Arizona @ Texas Tech
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Jones AT&T Stadium
Our pick
TTUTexas Tech Red Raiders
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Texas Tech can win
- Texas Tech's passing game (9.0 yards, 13th in FBS) faces the Arizona defense, which ranks 86th against it.
- Simulation: Texas Tech win 6,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Texas Tech play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Interception margin per game: Texas Tech rank 33rd (+0.4), Arizona 120th (-0.6) of 138 FBS teams.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 1.3 points to Texas Tech in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Texas Tech may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Arizona +28.0, Texas Tech +12.3.
- Upset odds: Arizona win 3,690 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Arizona rank 11th (9.2%), Texas Tech 69th (5.9%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texas Tech lose by 14 or more.
- Plays of 20+ yards per game: Arizona rank 28th (5.3), Texas Tech 56th (4.7) of 138 FBS teams.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TTU -5 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.1 |
| Win chance | ARIZ n/a · TTU n/a | ARIZ 37% · TTU 63% |
| Fair moneyline | ARIZ +171 · TTU -171 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Texas Tech 28, Arizona 24.
- 80% of simulations land between Arizona by 14 and Texas Tech by 25.
Side by side
| ARIZ | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 6-1 |
| 36.1 21 | Points per game | 35.9 27 |
| 16.7 23 | Points allowed | 20.4 36 |
| 6.5 43 | Yards per play | 7.1 20 |
| 5.6 61 | Yards per play allowed | 5.3 32 |
| -0.6 120 | Interception margin/game | +0.4 33 |
| 9.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 5.9% 69 |
| 1811 15 | Elo rating | 1825 13 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 2024 Wk 6 | Texas Tech 28 @ Arizona 22 | TTU |
| 2019-09-15 | 2019 Wk 3 | Texas Tech 14 @ Arizona 28 | ARIZ |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.