ASU
BYU
Arizona State @ BYU
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Our pick
BYUBYU Cougars
84% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why BYU can win
- Elo rating: worth about 7.3 points to BYU in our ratings.
- Simulation: BYU win 8,430 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: BYU rank 24th (+14.6), Arizona State 88th (+1.0) of 138 FBS teams.
- Home field: BYU play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 2.4 points to BYU in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why BYU may not
- Upset odds: Arizona State win 1,570 of 10,000 simulations (16%). A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, BYU lose by 4 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Arizona State rank 46th (7.0%), BYU 78th (5.5%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Field goal percentage: Arizona State rank 25th (90.0%), BYU 108th (62.5%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Weak spot: BYU rank 108th of 138 in field goal percentage (62.5%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BYU -14.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.4 |
| Win chance | ASU n/a · BYU n/a | ASU 16% · BYU 84% |
| Fair moneyline | ASU +537 · BYU -537 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BYU 31, Arizona State 17.
- 80% of simulations land between Arizona State by 4 and BYU by 35.
Side by side
| ASU | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 6-1 |
| 30.9 56 | Points per game | 33.1 40 |
| 29.9 110 | Points allowed | 18.6 26 |
| 5.8 98 | Yards per play | 6.3 60 |
| 6.4 102 | Yards per play allowed | 5.4 49 |
| -0.1 85 | Interception margin/game | +0.3 44 |
| 7.0% 46 | Sacks per dropback | 5.5% 78 |
| 1471 73 | Elo rating | 1708 31 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-23 | 2024 Wk 13 | BYU 23 @ Arizona State 28 | ASU |
| 2021-09-19 | 2021 Wk 3 | Arizona State 17 @ BYU 27 | BYU |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.