KU
TCU
Kansas @ TCU
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Our pick
TCUTCU Horned Frogs
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why TCU can win
- Simulation: TCU win 6,460 of 10,000 simulated games.
- TCU's passing game (8.3 yards, 27th in FBS) faces the Kansas defense, which ranks 82nd against it.
- Home field: TCU play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 1.9 points to TCU in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, TCU +0.0, Kansas -9.0.
Disadvantages Why TCU may not
- Upset odds: Kansas win 3,540 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, TCU lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: TCU rank 126th of 138 in running game, yards per carry (4.2).
- Elo rating: worth about 0.6 points to Kansas in our ratings.
- Weak spot: TCU rank 114th of 138 in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (8.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TCU -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.4 |
| Win chance | KU n/a · TCU n/a | KU 35% · TCU 65% |
| Fair moneyline | KU +182 · TCU -182 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TCU 27, Kansas 21.
- 80% of simulations land between Kansas by 14 and TCU by 26.
Side by side
| KU | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 3-4 |
| 31.0 55 | Points per game | 23.4 101 |
| 24.0 68 | Points allowed | 13.9 6 |
| 6.0 87 | Yards per play | 6.5 47 |
| 6.1 84 | Yards per play allowed | 4.6 5 |
| -0.8 133 | Interception margin/game | -0.3 102 |
| 5.3% 83 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 40 |
| 1595 51 | Elo rating | 1601 49 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | 2024 Wk 5 | TCU 38 @ Kansas 27 | TCU |
| 2022-10-08 | 2022 Wk 6 | TCU 38 @ Kansas 31 | TCU |
| 2021-11-20 | 2021 Wk 12 | Kansas 28 @ TCU 31 | TCU |
| 2020-11-29 | 2020 Wk 13 | TCU 59 @ Kansas 23 | TCU |
| 2019-09-28 | 2019 Wk 5 | Kansas 14 @ TCU 51 | TCU |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.