KSU
COLO
Kansas State @ Colorado
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Folsom Field
Our pick
KSUKansas State Wildcats
76% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Kansas State can win
- Elo rating: worth about 12.3 points to Kansas State in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Kansas State rank 35th (+11.7), Colorado 125th (-10.0) of 138 FBS teams.
- Simulation: Kansas State win 7,580 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Kansas State -6.3, Colorado -19.3.
- Elo rating: Kansas State rank 49th (1601), Colorado 112th (1265) of 138 FBS teams.
Disadvantages Why Kansas State may not
- Home field: Colorado play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Upset odds: Colorado win 2,420 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Kansas State lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Kansas State rank 97th of 138 in run defense, yards per carry allowed (5.3).
- Single-game variance: a couple of turnovers or a special-teams score can swing a college game by two touchdowns.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KSU -10.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.5 |
| Win chance | KSU n/a · COLO n/a | KSU 76% · COLO 24% |
| Fair moneyline | KSU -313 · COLO +313 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Colorado 20, Kansas State 30.
- 80% of simulations land between Kansas State by 31 and Colorado by 8.
Side by side
| KSU | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 32.9 43 | Points per game | 20.1 120 |
| 21.1 47 | Points allowed | 30.1 112 |
| 6.6 41 | Yards per play | 5.5 117 |
| 5.4 42 | Yards per play allowed | 6.3 99 |
| -0.1 85 | Interception margin/game | -0.7 131 |
| 8.9% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 40 |
| 1601 49 | Elo rating | 1265 112 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | 2025 Wk 14 | Colorado 14 @ Kansas State 24 | KSU |
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 7 | Kansas State 31 @ Colorado 28 | KSU |
| 2010-11-20 | 2010 Wk 12 | Kansas State 36 @ Colorado 44 | COLO |
| 2009-10-24 | 2009 Wk 8 | Colorado 6 @ Kansas State 20 | KSU |
| 2008-10-18 | 2008 Wk 8 | Kansas State 13 @ Colorado 14 | COLO |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.