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AZMango
SMU

SMU @ Syracuse

College football 2026 · Week 9 · · JMA Wireless Dome

SYR
Our pick
SMUSMU Mustangs
82% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

AZMango model

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why SMU can win

  1. Elo rating: worth about 15.6 points to SMU in our ratings.
  2. Recent form: average margin over the last three games, SMU +19.3, Syracuse -3.3.
  3. Simulation: SMU win 8,180 of 10,000 simulated games.
  4. Elo rating: SMU rank 21st (1759), Syracuse 104th (1328) of 138 FBS teams.
  5. Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 2.6 points to SMU in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why SMU may not

  1. Home field: Syracuse play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
  2. Travel: SMU come about 2,128 km (1,321 miles) for this one.
  3. Upset odds: Syracuse win 1,820 of 10,000 simulations (18%). A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
  4. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, SMU lose by 6 or more.
  5. Weak spot: SMU rank 119th of 138 in field goal percentage (58.3%).

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetSMU -13.6
Total pointsn/a53.3
Win chanceSMU n/a · SYR n/aSMU 82% · SYR 18%
Fair moneylineSMU -448 · SYR +448

No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games

  • Typical score: Syracuse 20, SMU 34.
  • 80% of simulations land between SMU by 35 and Syracuse by 6.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

SMUSYR
6-1Record3-4
36.4 20Points per game31.6 50
21.1 47Points allowed26.3 93
7.2 16Yards per play6.1 72
5.3 34Yards per play allowed5.7 66
-0.4 110Interception margin/game-0.6 120
8.5% 19Sacks per dropback6.2% 65
1759 21Elo rating1328 104

Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.

Last 1 meetings

DateGameScoreWinner
2025-10-042025 Wk 6Syracuse 18 @ SMU 31SMU

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works

No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)