GT
PITT
Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Acrisure Stadium
Our pick
PITTPittsburgh Panthers
76% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pittsburgh can win
- Elo rating: worth about 5.2 points to Pittsburgh in our ratings.
- Simulation: Pittsburgh win 7,640 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pittsburgh's passing game (8.2 yards, 32nd in FBS) faces the Georgia Tech defense, which ranks 106th against it.
- Point differential per game: Pittsburgh rank 45th (+10.8), Georgia Tech 104th (-3.6) of 138 FBS teams.
- Home field: Pittsburgh play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
Disadvantages Why Pittsburgh may not
- Georgia Tech's passing game (7.5 yards, 54th in FBS) faces the Pittsburgh defense, which ranks 95th against it.
- Upset odds: Georgia Tech win 2,360 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Pittsburgh lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Pittsburgh rank 95th of 138 in pass defense, yards per dropback allowed (7.5).
- Weak spot: Pittsburgh rank 92nd of 138 in plays of 20+ yards allowed per game (4.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PITT -10.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 54.3 |
| Win chance | GT n/a · PITT n/a | GT 24% · PITT 76% |
| Fair moneyline | GT +324 · PITT -324 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Pittsburgh 31, Georgia Tech 21.
- 80% of simulations land between Georgia Tech by 8 and Pittsburgh by 31.
Side by side
| GT | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-3 |
| 26.7 82 | Points per game | 31.6 49 |
| 30.3 114 | Points allowed | 20.9 43 |
| 6.6 39 | Yards per play | 6.7 34 |
| 6.6 114 | Yards per play allowed | 5.8 76 |
| -0.7 131 | Interception margin/game | +0.5 24 |
| 5.0% 92 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 75 |
| 1412 89 | Elo rating | 1588 52 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 13 | Pittsburgh 42 @ Georgia Tech 28 | PITT |
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 5 | Georgia Tech 26 @ Pittsburgh 21 | GT |
| 2021-10-02 | 2021 Wk 5 | Pittsburgh 52 @ Georgia Tech 21 | PITT |
| 2020-12-11 | 2020 Wk 15 | Pittsburgh 34 @ Georgia Tech 20 | PITT |
| 2019-11-02 | 2019 Wk 10 | Pittsburgh 20 @ Georgia Tech 10 | PITT |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.