STAN
LOU
Stanford @ Louisville
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Our pick
LOULouisville Cardinals
97% to win
A probability, not a promise. Even a pick this strong still loses about 3 times in 100.
Advantages Why Louisville can win
- Elo rating: worth about 18.3 points to Louisville in our ratings.
- Simulation: Louisville win 9,700 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Louisville rank 41st (+11.3), Stanford 132nd (-15.6) of 138 FBS teams.
- Louisville's running game (7.7 yards, 1st in FBS) faces the Stanford defense, which ranks 124th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Louisville +9.7, Stanford -7.0.
Disadvantages Why Louisville may not
- Stanford's passing game (7.9 yards, 38th in FBS) faces the Louisville defense, which ranks 105th against it.
- Upset odds: Stanford win 300 of 10,000 simulations (3%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 3 times in 100.
- Weak spot: Louisville rank 129th of 138 in field goal percentage (50.0%).
- Weak spot: Louisville rank 105th of 138 in pass defense, yards per dropback allowed (7.8).
- Weak spot: Louisville rank 105th of 138 in plays of 20+ yards allowed per game (4.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LOU -27.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.8 |
| Win chance | STAN n/a · LOU n/a | STAN 3% · LOU 97% |
| Fair moneyline | STAN +3267 · LOU -3267 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Louisville 40, Stanford 10.
- 80% of simulations land between Louisville by 7 and Louisville by 49.
Side by side
| STAN | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 19.9 125 | Points per game | 38.7 11 |
| 35.5 132 | Points allowed | 27.4 99 |
| 6.4 55 | Yards per play | 8.0 2 |
| 6.3 100 | Yards per play allowed | 6.2 91 |
| +0.0 71 | Interception margin/game | +0.5 24 |
| 1.9% 136 | Sacks per dropback | 8.0% 27 |
| 1157 127 | Elo rating | 1713 29 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-16 | 2024 Wk 12 | Louisville 35 @ Stanford 38 | STAN |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.