WIS
IOWA
Wisconsin @ Iowa
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Kinnick Stadium
Our pick
IOWAIowa Hawkeyes
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Iowa can win
- Elo rating: worth about 4.0 points to Iowa in our ratings.
- Simulation: Iowa win 6,370 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Iowa play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Iowa rank 2nd (11.6%), Wisconsin 108th (4.4%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Iowa rank 10th (2.3%), Wisconsin 73rd (5.4%) of 138 FBS teams.
Disadvantages Why Iowa may not
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 2.8 points to Wisconsin in our ratings.
- Wisconsin's passing game (8.4 yards, 25th in FBS) faces the Iowa defense, which ranks 89th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Wisconsin +11.7, Iowa -1.0.
- Upset odds: Wisconsin win 3,630 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Iowa lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IOWA -4.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.7 |
| Win chance | WIS n/a · IOWA n/a | WIS 36% · IOWA 64% |
| Fair moneyline | WIS +175 · IOWA -175 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Iowa 23, Wisconsin 17.
- 80% of simulations land between Wisconsin by 14 and Iowa by 25.
Side by side
| WIS | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 27.0 80 | Points per game | 28.0 75 |
| 15.3 11 | Points allowed | 14.3 8 |
| 6.2 66 | Yards per play | 5.7 102 |
| 4.2 1 | Yards per play allowed | 5.3 37 |
| +0.4 33 | Interception margin/game | +0.0 71 |
| 4.4% 108 | Sacks per dropback | 11.6% 2 |
| 1708 31 | Elo rating | 1846 11 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | 2025 Wk 7 | Iowa 37 @ Wisconsin 0 | IOWA |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024 Wk 10 | Wisconsin 10 @ Iowa 42 | IOWA |
| 2023-10-14 | 2023 Wk 7 | Iowa 15 @ Wisconsin 6 | IOWA |
| 2022-11-12 | 2022 Wk 11 | Wisconsin 10 @ Iowa 24 | IOWA |
| 2021-10-30 | 2021 Wk 9 | Iowa 7 @ Wisconsin 27 | WIS |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.