WASH
NEB
Washington @ Nebraska
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Our pick
NEBNebraska Cornhuskers
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nebraska can win
- Simulation: Nebraska win 6,560 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Nebraska rank 10th (+20.1), Washington 69th (+5.1) of 138 FBS teams.
- Home field: Nebraska play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Nebraska +6.3, Washington -3.0.
- Travel: Washington come about 2,164 km (1,344 miles) for this one.
Disadvantages Why Nebraska may not
- Upset odds: Washington win 3,440 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 0.9 points to Washington in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Nebraska lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Nebraska rank 129th of 138 in field goal percentage (50.0%).
- Offense, yards per play: Washington rank 32nd (6.7), Nebraska 64th (6.2) of 138 FBS teams.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NEB -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.1 |
| Win chance | WASH n/a · NEB n/a | WASH 34% · NEB 66% |
| Fair moneyline | WASH +190 · NEB -190 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Nebraska 27, Washington 21.
- 80% of simulations land between Washington by 14 and Nebraska by 25.
Side by side
| WASH | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 27.9 76 | Points per game | 35.6 29 |
| 22.7 56 | Points allowed | 15.4 14 |
| 6.7 32 | Yards per play | 6.2 64 |
| 5.2 26 | Yards per play allowed | 5.1 23 |
| +0.4 33 | Interception margin/game | +0.4 33 |
| 5.1% 89 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 34 |
| 1704 33 | Elo rating | 1767 19 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-09-17 | 2011 Wk 3 | Washington 38 @ Nebraska 51 | NEB |
| 2010-09-18 | 2010 Wk 3 | Nebraska 56 @ Washington 21 | NEB |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.