OSU
USC
Ohio State @ USC
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Our pick
OSUOhio State Buckeyes
72% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Ohio State can win
- Elo rating: worth about 11.7 points to Ohio State in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Ohio State +16.7, USC -1.7.
- Ohio State's passing game (10.9 yards, 2nd in FBS) faces the USC defense, which ranks 83rd against it.
- Simulation: Ohio State win 7,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 2.6 points to Ohio State in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Ohio State may not
- Home field: USC play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Travel: Ohio State come about 3,180 km (1,975 miles) for this one.
- Upset odds: USC win 2,790 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: USC rank 32nd (3.8%), Ohio State 101st (6.9%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ohio State lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OSU -8.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.6 |
| Win chance | OSU n/a · USC n/a | OSU 72% · USC 28% |
| Fair moneyline | OSU -258 · USC +258 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: USC 21, Ohio State 30.
- 80% of simulations land between Ohio State by 29 and USC by 10.
Side by side
| OSU | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 6-2 |
| 39.3 10 | Points per game | 32.8 44 |
| 13.4 4 | Points allowed | 25.0 77 |
| 7.6 9 | Yards per play | 6.8 29 |
| 4.4 3 | Yards per play allowed | 5.8 71 |
| -0.1 85 | Interception margin/game | -0.5 115 |
| 3.9% 120 | Sacks per dropback | 5.4% 82 |
| 2069 3 | Elo rating | 1752 23 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-09-13 | 2009 Wk 2 | USC 18 @ Ohio State 15 | USC |
| 2008-09-14 | 2008 Wk 3 | Ohio State 3 @ USC 35 | USC |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.