ND
NAVY
Notre Dame vs Navy
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Gillette Stadium
Our pick
NDNotre Dame Fighting Irish
95% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 95% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Notre Dame can win
- Elo rating: worth about 21.2 points to Notre Dame in our ratings.
- Simulation: Notre Dame win 9,460 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Notre Dame's passing game (8.5 yards, 23rd in FBS) faces the Navy defense, which ranks 137th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Notre Dame +19.3, Navy -2.0.
- Point differential per game: Notre Dame rank 2nd (+27.7), Navy 90th (+0.6) of 138 FBS teams.
Disadvantages Why Notre Dame may not
- Upset odds: Navy win 540 of 10,000 simulations (5%). A 95% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Single-game variance: a couple of turnovers or a special-teams score can swing a college game by two touchdowns.
- Availability: college football has no league-wide injury report. The ACC and Big 12 post availability reports about 2 hours before kickoff; other conferences may not.
- Small samples: teams play only 12 regular-season games, against very different schedules.
- Motivation and depth: rivalry weeks, bowl opt-outs and transfers move college lines in ways stats miss.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ND -23.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.6 |
| Win chance | ND n/a · NAVY n/a | ND 95% · NAVY 5% |
| Fair moneyline | ND -1755 · NAVY +1755 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Navy 13, Notre Dame 37.
- 80% of simulations land between Notre Dame by 44 and Notre Dame by 3.
Side by side
| ND | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 41.1 6 | Points per game | 29.7 64 |
| 13.4 4 | Points allowed | 29.1 108 |
| 6.7 31 | Yards per play | 6.5 45 |
| 4.7 8 | Yards per play allowed | 6.7 115 |
| +0.9 7 | Interception margin/game | +0.3 44 |
| 7.5% 39 | Sacks per dropback | 8.1% 25 |
| 2082 1 | Elo rating | 1487 70 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 11 | Navy 10 @ Notre Dame 49 | ND |
| 2024-10-26 | 2024 Wk 9 | Notre Dame 51 @ Navy 14 | ND |
| 2023-08-26 | 2023 Wk 1 | Navy 3 @ Notre Dame 42 | ND |
| 2022-11-12 | 2022 Wk 11 | Notre Dame 35 @ Navy 32 | ND |
| 2021-11-06 | 2021 Wk 10 | Navy 6 @ Notre Dame 34 | ND |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.