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AZMango
CSU

Colorado State @ Utah State

College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Maverik Stadium

USU
Our pick
USUUtah State Aggies
83% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

AZMango model

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Utah State can win

  1. Elo rating: worth about 5.8 points to Utah State in our ratings.
  2. Simulation: Utah State win 8,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
  3. Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 4.2 points to Utah State in our ratings.
  4. Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Utah State -7.0, Colorado State -20.7.
  5. Home field: Utah State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.

Disadvantages Why Utah State may not

  1. Interception margin per game: Colorado State rank 19th (+0.6), Utah State 136th (-1.0) of 138 FBS teams.
  2. Offense, yards per play: Colorado State rank 22nd (6.9), Utah State 121st (5.5) of 138 FBS teams.
  3. Plays of 20+ yards per game: Colorado State rank 28th (5.3), Utah State 119th (3.1) of 138 FBS teams.
  4. Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Colorado State rank 3rd (1.1%), Utah State 118th (8.2%) of 138 FBS teams.
  5. Upset odds: Colorado State win 1,700 of 10,000 simulations (17%). A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUSU -14.5
Total pointsn/a55.3
Win chanceCSU n/a · USU n/aCSU 17% · USU 83%
Fair moneylineCSU +488 · USU -488

No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games

  • Typical score: Utah State 34, Colorado State 20.
  • 80% of simulations land between Colorado State by 5 and Utah State by 35.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

CSUUSU
3-4Record2-5
38.6 12Points per game14.9 138
44.0 138Points allowed23.0 58
6.9 22Yards per play5.5 121
8.9 138Yards per play allowed5.0 17
+0.6 19Interception margin/game-1.0 136
4.1% 115Sacks per dropback4.5% 103
1171 125Elo rating1364 96

Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.

Last 5 meetings

DateGameScoreWinner
2024-11-292024 Wk 14Utah State 37 @ Colorado State 42CSU
2023-10-082023 Wk 6Colorado State 24 @ Utah State 44USU
2022-10-152022 Wk 7Utah State 17 @ Colorado State 13USU
2021-10-232021 Wk 8Colorado State 24 @ Utah State 26USU
2019-09-282019 Wk 5Colorado State 24 @ Utah State 34USU

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works

No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)