TULN
CLT
Tulane @ Charlotte
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Jerry Richardson Stadium
Our pick
TULNTulane Green Wave
88% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Tulane can win
- Elo rating: worth about 16.8 points to Tulane in our ratings.
- Simulation: Tulane win 8,760 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Tulane -4.0, Charlotte -28.0.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 3.8 points to Tulane in our ratings.
- Tulane's passing game (7.2 yards, 68th in FBS) faces the Charlotte defense, which ranks 136th against it.
Disadvantages Why Tulane may not
- Home field: Charlotte play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Upset odds: Charlotte win 1,240 of 10,000 simulations (12%). A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Tulane lose by 2 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Charlotte rank 68th (5.2%), Tulane 124th (8.9%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Weak spot: Tulane rank 124th of 138 in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (8.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TULN -16.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.7 |
| Win chance | TULN n/a · CLT n/a | TULN 88% · CLT 12% |
| Fair moneyline | TULN -706 · CLT +706 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Charlotte 14, Tulane 33.
- 80% of simulations land between Tulane by 37 and Charlotte by 2.
Side by side
| TULN | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 1-6 |
| 20.3 118 | Points per game | 19.1 128 |
| 24.6 73 | Points allowed | 40.6 137 |
| 6.5 46 | Yards per play | 5.8 97 |
| 5.9 77 | Yards per play allowed | 7.3 132 |
| -0.3 102 | Interception margin/game | -1.1 138 |
| 5.5% 79 | Sacks per dropback | 5.1% 88 |
| 1493 67 | Elo rating | 1026 134 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 2025 Wk 14 | Charlotte 0 @ Tulane 27 | TULN |
| 2024-10-31 | 2024 Wk 10 | Tulane 34 @ Charlotte 3 | TULN |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.