UAB
USF
UAB @ South Florida
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Raymond James Stadium
Our pick
USFSouth Florida Bulls
77% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why South Florida can win
- Elo rating: worth about 6.7 points to South Florida in our ratings.
- Simulation: South Florida win 7,680 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: South Florida rank 40th (+11.4), UAB 98th (-1.3) of 138 FBS teams.
- Home field: South Florida play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: South Florida rank 1st (0.0%), UAB 134th (11.9%) of 138 FBS teams.
Disadvantages Why South Florida may not
- UAB's passing game (7.5 yards, 53rd in FBS) faces the South Florida defense, which ranks 85th against it.
- Upset odds: UAB win 2,320 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: UAB rank 49th (6.9%), South Florida 123rd (3.7%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, South Florida lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: South Florida rank 138th of 138 in plays of 20+ yards per game (1.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | USF -11 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.2 |
| Win chance | UAB n/a · USF n/a | UAB 23% · USF 77% |
| Fair moneyline | UAB +332 · USF -332 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: South Florida 31, UAB 20.
- 80% of simulations land between UAB by 8 and South Florida by 31.
Side by side
| UAB | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.3 103 | Points per game | 26.6 84 |
| 24.6 73 | Points allowed | 15.1 10 |
| 5.9 93 | Yards per play | 5.8 96 |
| 4.9 14 | Yards per play allowed | 6.3 95 |
| +0.1 56 | Interception margin/game | +0.7 16 |
| 6.9% 49 | Sacks per dropback | 3.7% 123 |
| 1396 91 | Elo rating | 1613 46 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | 2025 Wk 13 | South Florida 48 @ UAB 18 | USF |
| 2024-10-19 | 2024 Wk 8 | UAB 25 @ South Florida 35 | USF |
| 2023-10-07 | 2023 Wk 6 | South Florida 35 @ UAB 56 | UAB |
| 2004-11-04 | 2004 Wk 11 | South Florida 45 @ UAB 20 | USF |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.