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AZMango
UNM

New Mexico @ San José State

College football 2026 · Week 9 · · CEFCU Stadium

SJSU
Our pick
UNMNew Mexico Lobos
72% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why New Mexico can win

  1. Elo rating: worth about 12.1 points to New Mexico in our ratings.
  2. Recent form: average margin over the last three games, New Mexico +23.3, San José State -1.7.
  3. Point differential per game: New Mexico rank 5th (+25.7), San José State 101st (-2.1) of 138 FBS teams.
  4. Simulation: New Mexico win 7,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
  5. Elo rating: New Mexico rank 35th (1680), San José State 102nd (1352) of 138 FBS teams.

Disadvantages Why New Mexico may not

  1. Home field: San José State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
  2. Upset odds: San José State win 2,840 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, New Mexico lose by 11 or more.
  4. History: San José State won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters turn over fast in college, so this says little).
  5. Weak spot: New Mexico rank 132nd of 138 in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (10.9%).

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUNM -8
Total pointsn/a48.4
Win chanceUNM n/a · SJSU n/aUNM 72% · SJSU 28%
Fair moneylineUNM -253 · SJSU +253

No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games

  • Typical score: San José State 20, New Mexico 28.
  • 80% of simulations land between New Mexico by 28 and San José State by 11.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

UNMSJSU
6-1Record4-4
37.0 19Points per game20.4 117
11.3 1Points allowed22.5 55
6.0 86Yards per play6.1 74
4.8 11Yards per play allowed5.5 51
+1.5 1Interception margin/game+0.2 52
9.6% 10Sacks per dropback8.8% 16
1680 35Elo rating1352 102

Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.

Last 5 meetings

DateGameScoreWinner
2025-10-042025 Wk 6New Mexico 28 @ San José State 35SJSU
2023-10-142023 Wk 7San José State 52 @ New Mexico 24SJSU
2020-10-312020 Wk 9San José State 38 @ New Mexico 21SJSU
2019-10-052019 Wk 6New Mexico 21 @ San José State 32SJSU
2016-10-012016 Wk 5San José State 41 @ New Mexico 48UNM

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works

No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)