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AZMango
UTEP

UTEP @ North Dakota State

College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Fargodome

NDSU
Our pick
NDSUNorth Dakota State Bison
98% to win

A probability, not a promise. Even a pick this strong still loses about 2 times in 100.

AZMango model

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why North Dakota State can win

  1. Elo rating: worth about 21.2 points to North Dakota State in our ratings.
  2. Simulation: North Dakota State win 9,780 of 10,000 simulated games.
  3. Point differential per game: North Dakota State rank 22nd (+15.2), UTEP 137th (-22.1) of 138 FBS teams.
  4. Recent form: average margin over the last three games, North Dakota State +1.0, UTEP -28.0.
  5. Elo rating: North Dakota State rank 41st (1631), UTEP 136th (992) of 138 FBS teams.

Disadvantages Why North Dakota State may not

  1. Upset odds: UTEP win 220 of 10,000 simulations (2%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 2 times in 100.
  2. Weak spot: North Dakota State rank 112th of 138 in running game, yards per carry (4.6).
  3. Weak spot: North Dakota State rank 106th of 138 in plays of 20+ yards per game (3.5).
  4. Weak spot: North Dakota State rank 104th of 138 in offense, yards per play (5.7).
  5. Single-game variance: a couple of turnovers or a special-teams score can swing a college game by two touchdowns.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetNDSU -29.3
Total pointsn/a48.3
Win chanceUTEP n/a · NDSU n/aUTEP 2% · NDSU 98%
Fair moneylineUTEP +4508 · NDSU -4508

No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games

  • Typical score: North Dakota State 38, UTEP 7.
  • 80% of simulations land between North Dakota State by 10 and North Dakota State by 49.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

UTEPNDSU
1-6Record6-2
15.1 135Points per game27.8 77
37.3 134Points allowed12.5 3
5.8 94Yards per play5.7 104
6.3 97Yards per play allowed4.7 9
-0.1 85Interception margin/game+0.6 17
4.0% 117Sacks per dropback7.6% 35
992 136Elo rating1631 41

Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2004.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works

No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)