APP
GASO
App State @ Georgia Southern
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Our pick
GASOGeorgia Southern Eagles
68% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Georgia Southern can win
- Simulation: Georgia Southern win 6,830 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Georgia Southern play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Georgia Southern rank 24th (8.1%), App State 118th (4.0%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Georgia Southern's passing game (7.1 yards, 70th in FBS) faces the App State defense, which ranks 104th against it.
- Elo rating: worth about 1.4 points to Georgia Southern in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Georgia Southern may not
- Interception margin per game: App State rank 2nd (+1.2), Georgia Southern 85th (-0.1) of 138 FBS teams.
- Upset odds: App State win 3,170 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Plays of 20+ yards per game: App State rank 14th (5.8), Georgia Southern 91st (3.9) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Georgia Southern lose by 12 or more.
- Field goal percentage: App State rank 13th (91.7%), Georgia Southern 121st (57.1%) of 138 FBS teams.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GASO -7 |
| Total points | n/a | 54 |
| Win chance | APP n/a · GASO n/a | APP 32% · GASO 68% |
| Fair moneyline | APP +215 · GASO -215 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Georgia Southern 30, App State 23.
- 80% of simulations land between App State by 12 and Georgia Southern by 28.
Side by side
| APP | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 30.1 59 | Points per game | 24.4 96 |
| 23.1 61 | Points allowed | 23.0 58 |
| 6.0 79 | Yards per play | 6.3 61 |
| 5.7 67 | Yards per play allowed | 5.4 45 |
| +1.2 2 | Interception margin/game | -0.1 85 |
| 4.0% 118 | Sacks per dropback | 8.1% 24 |
| 1310 106 | Elo rating | 1374 92 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | 2025 Bowl/playoff | Georgia Southern 29 @ App State 10 | GASO |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025 Wk 11 | Georgia Southern 25 @ App State 23 | GASO |
| 2024-11-30 | 2024 Wk 14 | App State 20 @ Georgia Southern 29 | GASO |
| 2023-11-25 | 2023 Wk 13 | Georgia Southern 27 @ App State 55 | APP |
| 2022-11-26 | 2022 Wk 13 | App State 48 @ Georgia Southern 51 | GASO |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.