JXST
NMSU
Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Kicked off. The numbers below are from before the game.
Our pick
JXSTJacksonville State Gamecocks
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Jacksonville State can win
- Elo rating: worth about 7.0 points to Jacksonville State in our ratings.
- Simulation: Jacksonville State win 5,860 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Elo rating: Jacksonville State rank 84th (1430), New Mexico State 115th (1249) of 138 FBS teams.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 1.0 points to Jacksonville State in our ratings.
- Strength: Jacksonville State rank 12th of 138 in plays of 20+ yards allowed per game (2.7).
Disadvantages Why Jacksonville State may not
- Home field: New Mexico State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Upset odds: New Mexico State win 4,140 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Travel: Jacksonville State come about 1,959 km (1,217 miles) for this one.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jacksonville State lose by 17 or more.
- Weak spot: Jacksonville State rank 118th of 138 in field goal percentage (58.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JXST -3.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.6 |
| Win chance | JXST n/a · NMSU n/a | JXST 59% · NMSU 41% |
| Fair moneyline | JXST -141 · NMSU +141 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: New Mexico State 23, Jacksonville State 27.
- 80% of simulations land between Jacksonville State by 24 and New Mexico State by 17.
Side by side
| JXST | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 27.3 79 | Points per game | 24.6 95 |
| 22.7 56 | Points allowed | 25.4 85 |
| 6.6 37 | Yards per play | 6.2 63 |
| 5.6 54 | Yards per play allowed | 5.3 29 |
| -0.1 85 | Interception margin/game | -0.3 106 |
| 4.4% 105 | Sacks per dropback | 5.3% 85 |
| 1430 84 | Elo rating | 1249 115 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-09 | 2024 Wk 7 | New Mexico State 13 @ Jacksonville State 54 | JXST |
| 2023-11-25 | 2023 Wk 13 | Jacksonville State 17 @ New Mexico State 20 | NMSU |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.