FIU
LIB
Florida International @ Liberty
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Williams Stadium (VA)
Our pick
LIBLiberty Flames
92% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 92% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Liberty can win
- Elo rating: worth about 11.9 points to Liberty in our ratings.
- Simulation: Liberty win 9,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Liberty +25.3, Florida International +4.3.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 3.5 points to Liberty in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Liberty rank 16th (+17.6), Florida International 75th (+3.9) of 138 FBS teams.
Disadvantages Why Liberty may not
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Florida International rank 13th (2.4%), Liberty 117th (8.1%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Upset odds: Florida International win 780 of 10,000 simulations (8%). A 92% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Weak spot: Liberty rank 117th of 138 in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (8.1%).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Florida International rank 62nd (6.4%), Liberty 93rd (5.0%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Weak spot: Liberty rank 93rd of 138 in pass rush, sacks per dropback (5.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LIB -20.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.8 |
| Win chance | FIU n/a · LIB n/a | FIU 8% · LIB 92% |
| Fair moneyline | FIU +1177 · LIB -1177 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Liberty 34, Florida International 13.
- 80% of simulations land between Liberty by 2 and Liberty by 41.
Side by side
| FIU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 6-1 |
| 20.1 120 | Points per game | 31.6 50 |
| 16.3 21 | Points allowed | 14.0 7 |
| 5.5 119 | Yards per play | 7.4 14 |
| 5.2 27 | Yards per play allowed | 4.8 10 |
| -0.4 110 | Interception margin/game | +1.0 3 |
| 6.4% 62 | Sacks per dropback | 5.0% 93 |
| 1401 90 | Elo rating | 1770 18 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | 2025 Wk 12 | Liberty 27 @ Florida International 34 | FIU |
| 2024-10-08 | 2024 Wk 7 | Florida International 24 @ Liberty 31 | LIB |
| 2023-09-23 | 2023 Wk 4 | Liberty 38 @ Florida International 6 | LIB |
| 2020-09-26 | 2020 Wk 4 | Florida International 34 @ Liberty 36 | LIB |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.