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AZMango
DEL

Delaware @ Western Kentucky

College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

WKU
Kicked off. The numbers below are from before the game.
Our pick
WKUWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers
57% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Western Kentucky can win

  1. Home field: Western Kentucky play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
  2. Western Kentucky's passing game (7.2 yards, 66th in FBS) faces the Delaware defense, which ranks 120th against it.
  3. Simulation: Western Kentucky win 5,670 of 10,000 simulated games.
  4. Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 1.7 points to Western Kentucky in our ratings.
  5. Interception margin per game: Western Kentucky rank 56th (+0.1), Delaware 120th (-0.6) of 138 FBS teams.

Disadvantages Why Western Kentucky may not

  1. Elo rating: worth about 4.3 points to Delaware in our ratings.
  2. Upset odds: Delaware win 4,330 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
  3. Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Delaware rank 27th (8.0%), Western Kentucky 126th (3.5%) of 138 FBS teams.
  4. Plays of 20+ yards per game: Delaware rank 28th (5.3), Western Kentucky 103rd (3.6) of 138 FBS teams.
  5. Point differential per game: Delaware rank 94th (-0.1), Western Kentucky 123rd (-9.3) of 138 FBS teams.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetWKU -2.4
Total pointsn/a54.4
Win chanceDEL n/a · WKU n/aDEL 43% · WKU 57%
Fair moneylineDEL +131 · WKU -131

No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games

  • Typical score: Western Kentucky 28, Delaware 26.
  • 80% of simulations land between Delaware by 17 and Western Kentucky by 22.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

DELWKU
3-4Record3-4
28.3 71Points per game21.3 113
28.4 107Points allowed30.6 116
5.8 100Yards per play5.8 95
6.9 120Yards per play allowed5.7 68
-0.6 120Interception margin/game+0.1 56
8.0% 27Sacks per dropback3.5% 126
1371 93Elo rating1269 111

Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.

Last 1 meetings

DateGameScoreWinner
2025-10-032025 Wk 6Western Kentucky 27 @ Delaware 24WKU

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works

No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)