SHSU
MOST
Sam Houston @ Missouri State
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · Plaster Sports Complex
Kicked off. The numbers below are from before the game.
Our pick
MOSTMissouri State Bears
68% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Missouri State can win
- Simulation: Missouri State win 6,830 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Missouri State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Elo rating: worth about 2.1 points to Missouri State in our ratings.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 0.7 points to Missouri State in our ratings.
- Field goal percentage: Missouri State rank 61st (77.8%), Sam Houston 108th (62.5%) of 138 FBS teams.
Disadvantages Why Missouri State may not
- Upset odds: Sam Houston win 3,170 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Interception margin per game: Sam Houston rank 56th (+0.1), Missouri State 106th (-0.3) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Missouri State lose by 12 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Sam Houston rank 55th (6.7%), Missouri State 105th (4.4%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Weak spot: Missouri State rank 130th of 138 in points allowed per game (34.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MOST -7.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.7 |
| Win chance | SHSU n/a · MOST n/a | SHSU 32% · MOST 68% |
| Fair moneyline | SHSU +216 · MOST -216 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Missouri State 28, Sam Houston 21.
- 80% of simulations land between Sam Houston by 12 and Missouri State by 27.
Side by side
| SHSU | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 2-5 |
| 20.1 120 | Points per game | 24.4 96 |
| 25.3 79 | Points allowed | 34.9 130 |
| 5.6 112 | Yards per play | 5.9 92 |
| 5.6 63 | Yards per play allowed | 6.3 98 |
| +0.1 56 | Interception margin/game | -0.3 106 |
| 6.7% 55 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 105 |
| 1104 130 | Elo rating | 1187 123 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2004.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.