MRSH
ODU
Marshall @ Old Dominion
College football 2026 · Week 9 · · S.B. Ballard Stadium
Our pick
MRSHMarshall Thundering Herd
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Marshall can win
- Elo rating: worth about 7.1 points to Marshall in our ratings.
- Simulation: Marshall win 5,370 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Marshall rank 43rd (4.2%), Old Dominion 137th (18.2%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Interception margin per game: Marshall rank 24th (+0.5), Old Dominion 82nd (-0.1) of 138 FBS teams.
- History: Marshall won 5 of the last 5 meetings (rosters turn over fast in college, so this says little).
Disadvantages Why Marshall may not
- Upset odds: Old Dominion win 4,630 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Old Dominion play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 2.2 points to Old Dominion in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Marshall lose by 18 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Old Dominion rank 87th (5.2%), Marshall 133rd (2.7%) of 138 FBS teams.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MRSH -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.6 |
| Win chance | MRSH n/a · ODU n/a | MRSH 54% · ODU 46% |
| Fair moneyline | MRSH -116 · ODU +116 |
No betting line yet. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: Old Dominion 24, Marshall 24.
- 80% of simulations land between Marshall by 21 and Old Dominion by 18.
Side by side
| MRSH | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-6 |
| 21.7 109 | Points per game | 15.5 133 |
| 30.7 118 | Points allowed | 26.8 97 |
| 5.4 123 | Yards per play | 5.1 133 |
| 6.5 107 | Yards per play allowed | 5.1 20 |
| +0.5 24 | Interception margin/game | -0.1 82 |
| 2.7% 133 | Sacks per dropback | 5.2% 87 |
| 1355 99 | Elo rating | 1171 125 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | 2025 Wk 7 | Old Dominion 24 @ Marshall 48 | MRSH |
| 2024-11-24 | 2024 Wk 13 | Marshall 42 @ Old Dominion 35 | MRSH |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023 Wk 5 | Old Dominion 35 @ Marshall 41 | MRSH |
| 2022-11-05 | 2022 Wk 10 | Marshall 12 @ Old Dominion 0 | MRSH |
| 2021-10-09 | 2021 Wk 6 | Old Dominion 13 @ Marshall 20 | MRSH |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 7,181 FBS games since 2016. Model version 1. How it works
No line logged for this season yet, so the ratings lean on Elo, scoring margins and yards per play.