BALBUF
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Highmark Stadium
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Simulation: Bills win 6,020 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 1.6 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bills +1.0, Ravens -6.0.
- Quarterback change: Ravens are starting a different quarterback than usual.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Ravens win 3,980 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Ravens rank 14th (+0.1), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Ravens running game (14th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | BUF -3 | BUF -3 |
| Total points | 54.5 | 54.5 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · BUF n/a | BAL 40% · BUF 60% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL +151 · BUF -151 |
Line as of (the-odds-api consensus). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 29, BAL 26.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 13 and BUF by 20.
- BUF cover the spread in 45% of simulations, push in 8%.
- The game goes over 54.5 in 49%.
Side by side
| BAL | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-1 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 1 | BAL 40 @ BUF 41 | BUF | BAL -1.5 |
| 2025-01-19 | 2024 Divisional | BAL 25 @ BUF 27 | BUF | BAL -1.5 |
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | BUF 10 @ BAL 35 | BAL | BAL -2.5 |
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | BUF 23 @ BAL 20 | BUF | BUF -3 |
| 2021-01-16 | 2020 Divisional | BAL 3 @ BUF 17 | BUF | BUF -2.5 |
Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works