KCDEN
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Empower Field at Mile High
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Broncos 16th (+0.4).
- Simulation: Chiefs win 5,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Chiefs rank 10th (3.8), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 0.8 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Broncos win 4,450 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Chiefs +0.7.
- Home field: Broncos play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Broncos rank 9th (7.4%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Division game: these teams play twice a year and know each other, which tends to tighten the margin.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | KC -1 | KC -1 |
| Total points | 40.5 | 40.5 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · DEN n/a | KC 56% · DEN 44% |
| Fair moneyline | KC -125 · DEN +125 |
Line as of (the-odds-api consensus). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 20, KC 20.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 17 and DEN by 15.
- DEN cover the spread in 46% of simulations, push in 3%.
- The game goes over 40.5 in 48%.
Side by side
| KC | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | 2026 Wk 1 | DEN 10 @ KC 31 | KC | KC -2.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | 2025 Wk 17 | DEN 20 @ KC 13 | DEN | DEN -13.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025 Wk 11 | KC 19 @ DEN 22 | DEN | KC -3.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | KC 0 @ DEN 38 | DEN | DEN -10.5 |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | DEN 14 @ KC 16 | KC | KC -7.5 |
Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works