LACLA
Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · SoFi Stadium
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 3.5 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Rams rank 12th (+1.6), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Rams +3.0, Chargers -9.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to Rams in our ratings.
- Simulation: Rams win 7,080 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 2,920 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Rest: Chargers have 14 days since their last game, Rams 7.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Rams rank 32nd in field goal percentage (60.0%).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Chargers rank 19th (6.0%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | LA -6.5 | LA -6.5 |
| Total points | 45 | 45 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · LA n/a | LAC 29% · LA 71% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +242 · LA -242 |
Line as of (the-odds-api consensus). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 25, LAC 19.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 10 and LA by 24.
- LA cover the spread in 47% of simulations.
- The game goes over 45 in 46%.
Side by side
| LAC | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 3-4 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-01 | 2022 Wk 17 | LA 10 @ LAC 31 | LAC | LAC -6.5 |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 3 | LAC 23 @ LA 35 | LA | LA -7.5 |
| 2014-11-23 | 2014 Wk 12 | LA 24 @ LAC 27 | LAC | LAC -4 |
| 2010-10-17 | 2010 Wk 6 | LAC 17 @ LA 20 | LA | LAC -9.5 |
| 2006-10-29 | 2006 Wk 8 | LA 24 @ LAC 38 | LAC | LAC -9.5 |
Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works