MINDET
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Ford Field
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Simulation: Lions win 6,050 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Lions play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 1.0 points stronger.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Lions rank 11th (5.1%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Lions rank 10th (3.8), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Upset odds: Vikings win 3,950 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Lions 9th (+3.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Vikings passing game (22nd in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Division game: these teams play twice a year and know each other, which tends to tighten the margin.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | DET -3.5 | DET -3.5 |
| Total points | 46 | 46 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · DET n/a | MIN 40% · DET 60% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +153 · DET -153 |
Line as of (the-odds-api consensus). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 24, MIN 21.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 13 and DET by 21.
- DET cover the spread in 47% of simulations.
- The game goes over 46 in 47%.
Side by side
| MIN | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 4-2 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-25 | 2025 Wk 17 | DET 10 @ MIN 23 | MIN | DET -7 |
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | MIN 27 @ DET 24 | MIN | DET -9.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | MIN 9 @ DET 31 | DET | DET -3 |
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 Wk 7 | DET 31 @ MIN 29 | DET | MIN -1 |
| 2024-01-07 | 2023 Wk 18 | MIN 20 @ DET 30 | DET | DET -3.5 |
Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works