PHIWAS
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Northwest Stadium
Our pick
WASWashington Commanders
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Commanders can win
- Simulation: Commanders win 7,040 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Eagles 21st (-0.4).
- Commanders running game (12th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Rest: Commanders have 13 days since their last game, Eagles 6.
Disadvantages Why the Commanders may not
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Eagles about 2.0 points stronger.
- Upset odds: Eagles win 2,960 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Eagles running game (23rd in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Division game: these teams play twice a year and know each other, which tends to tighten the margin.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Commanders lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | WAS -6 | WAS -6 |
| Total points | 40.5 | 40.5 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · WAS n/a | PHI 30% · WAS 70% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +238 · WAS -238 |
Line as of (the-odds-api consensus). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 23, PHI 17.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 10 and WAS by 23.
- WAS cover the spread in 46% of simulations, push in 5%.
- The game goes over 40.5 in 49%.
Side by side
| PHI | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | WAS 22 @ PHI 24 | PHI | PHI -6 |
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | WAS 24 @ PHI 17 | WAS | PHI -3 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025 Wk 16 | PHI 29 @ WAS 18 | PHI | PHI -7 |
| 2025-01-26 | 2024 Conf. title | WAS 23 @ PHI 55 | PHI | PHI -6 |
| 2024-12-22 | 2024 Wk 16 | PHI 33 @ WAS 36 | WAS | PHI -4 |
Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works