ARIBAL
Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore Ravens
Any-day matchup, Ravens at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 4.0 points stronger.
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Simulation: Ravens win 7,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to Ravens in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Ravens rank 17th (+0.3), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,550 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cardinals rank 10th (5.0%), Ravens 26th (8.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Ravens rank 26th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (8.2%).
- Weak spot: Ravens rank 24th in pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed (+0.13).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -7.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.9 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · BAL n/a | ARI 26% · BAL 74% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +292 · BAL -292 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BAL 28, ARI 20.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 8 and BAL by 25.
Side by side
| ARI | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 24.1 12 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 23.9 18 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | +0.09 8 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.04 21 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 6.6% 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-29 | 2023 Wk 8 | BAL 31 @ ARI 24 | BAL | BAL -9.5 |
| 2019-09-15 | 2019 Wk 2 | ARI 17 @ BAL 23 | BAL | BAL -13 |
| 2015-10-26 | 2015 Wk 7 | BAL 18 @ ARI 26 | ARI | ARI -10 |
| 2011-10-30 | 2011 Wk 8 | ARI 27 @ BAL 30 | BAL | BAL -12 |
| 2007-09-23 | 2007 Wk 3 | ARI 23 @ BAL 26 | BAL | BAL -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away