ARIIND
Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndianapolis Colts
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Colts can win
- Simulation: Colts win 6,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Colts about 1.9 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Colts in our ratings.
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Cardinals cross 2 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the Colts may not
- Turnover margin per game: Cardinals rank 13th (+0.3), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 3,400 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Cardinals running game (17th in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Colts lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Colts rank 32nd in turnover margin per game (-1.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -4.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 49 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · IND n/a | ARI 34% · IND 66% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +194 · IND -194 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 27, ARI 21.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 11 and IND by 23.
Side by side
| ARI | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025 Wk 6 | ARI 27 @ IND 31 | IND | IND -8.5 |
| 2021-12-25 | 2021 Wk 16 | IND 22 @ ARI 16 | IND | ARI -3 |
| 2017-09-17 | 2017 Wk 2 | ARI 16 @ IND 13 | ARI | ARI -7 |
| 2013-11-24 | 2013 Wk 12 | IND 11 @ ARI 40 | ARI | ARI -3.5 |
| 2009-09-27 | 2009 Wk 3 | IND 31 @ ARI 10 | IND | ARI -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away