ARILAC
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LACLos Angeles Chargers
65% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 65% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chargers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chargers about 2.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Chargers win 6,460 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Strength: Chargers rank 5th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (-0.12).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.3 points to Chargers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Chargers may not
- Turnover margin per game: Cardinals rank 13th (+0.3), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 3,540 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cardinals rank 10th (5.0%), Chargers 31st (10.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chargers lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Chargers rank 32nd in point differential per game (-10.2).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -4.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 47 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · LAC n/a | ARI 35% · LAC 65% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +182 · LAC -182 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 26, ARI 21.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 11 and LAC by 21.
Side by side
| ARI | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 0-6 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | ARI 26 @ LAC 14 | ARI | LAC -8.5 |
| 2024-10-21 | 2024 Wk 7 | LAC 15 @ ARI 17 | ARI | LAC -1 |
| 2022-11-27 | 2022 Wk 12 | LAC 25 @ ARI 24 | LAC | LAC -2.5 |
| 2018-11-25 | 2018 Wk 12 | ARI 10 @ LAC 45 | LAC | LAC -14 |
| 2014-09-08 | 2014 Wk 1 | LAC 17 @ ARI 18 | ARI | ARI -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away