ARINYG
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants
Any-day matchup, Giants at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NYGNew York Giants
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Giants can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Giants -0.3, Cardinals -12.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to Giants in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Giants rank 17th (+0.3), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Simulation: Giants win 6,020 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Giants passing game (18th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Giants may not
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 3,980 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
- Cardinals running game (17th in EPA) faces the Giants defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cardinals rank 10th (5.0%), Giants 25th (8.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYG -3.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.7 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · NYG n/a | ARI 40% · NYG 60% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +151 · NYG -151 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYG 25, ARI 21.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 13 and NYG by 20.
Side by side
| ARI | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2-1 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 23.3 16 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 23.0 17 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 16 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.00 16 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | -0.3 20 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2026 Wk 4 | ARI 24 @ NYG 36 | NYG | ARI -2.5 |
| 2023-09-17 | 2023 Wk 2 | NYG 31 @ ARI 28 | NYG | NYG -5 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | ARI 26 @ NYG 7 | ARI | ARI -3 |
| 2019-10-20 | 2019 Wk 7 | ARI 27 @ NYG 21 | ARI | NYG -3.5 |
| 2017-12-24 | 2017 Wk 16 | NYG 0 @ ARI 23 | ARI | ARI -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away