ARIPHI
Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Eagles can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Eagles about 2.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Eagles win 6,290 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Cardinals cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to Eagles in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Eagles may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 3,710 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Cardinals running game (17th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Cardinals rank 17th (6.5%), Eagles 32nd (3.2%).
- Turnover margin per game: Cardinals rank 13th (+0.3), Eagles 21st (-0.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Eagles lose by 12 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -4.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.5 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · PHI n/a | ARI 37% · PHI 63% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +169 · PHI -169 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 24, ARI 20.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 12 and PHI by 21.
Side by side
| ARI | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-31 | 2023 Wk 17 | ARI 35 @ PHI 31 | ARI | PHI -12 |
| 2022-10-09 | 2022 Wk 5 | PHI 20 @ ARI 17 | PHI | PHI -5.5 |
| 2020-12-20 | 2020 Wk 15 | PHI 26 @ ARI 33 | ARI | ARI -6.5 |
| 2017-10-08 | 2017 Wk 5 | ARI 7 @ PHI 34 | PHI | PHI -6 |
| 2015-12-20 | 2015 Wk 15 | ARI 40 @ PHI 17 | ARI | ARI -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away