ATLBAL
Atlanta Falcons @ Baltimore Ravens
Any-day matchup, Ravens at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 2.4 points stronger.
- Simulation: Ravens win 6,140 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Falcons defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Home field: Ravens play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Ravens rank 14th (+0.1), Falcons 21st (-0.4).
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Upset odds: Falcons win 3,860 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 12 or more.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.5 points to Falcons in our ratings.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Ravens 13th (3.7).
- Weak spot: Ravens rank 26th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (8.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 48 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · BAL n/a | ATL 39% · BAL 61% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +159 · BAL -159 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BAL 26, ATL 21.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 12 and BAL by 21.
Side by side
| ATL | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 24.1 12 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 23.9 18 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | +0.09 8 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.04 21 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 6.6% 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 2026 Wk 5 | BAL 30 @ ATL 23 | BAL | ATL -3.5 |
| 2022-12-24 | 2022 Wk 16 | ATL 9 @ BAL 17 | BAL | BAL -6.5 |
| 2018-12-02 | 2018 Wk 13 | BAL 26 @ ATL 16 | BAL | ATL -2.5 |
| 2014-10-19 | 2014 Wk 7 | ATL 7 @ BAL 29 | BAL | BAL -7 |
| 2010-11-11 | 2010 Wk 10 | BAL 21 @ ATL 26 | ATL | ATL -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away