ATLBUF
Atlanta Falcons @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 4.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bills win 7,000 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Falcons defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Falcons 19th (-0.3).
- Home field: Bills play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Upset odds: Falcons win 3,000 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Bills rank 31st in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.13).
- Weak spot: Bills rank 30th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -6.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.3 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · BUF n/a | ATL 30% · BUF 70% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +234 · BUF -234 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 30, ATL 23.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 10 and BUF by 24.
Side by side
| ATL | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-1 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | 2025 Wk 6 | BUF 14 @ ATL 24 | ATL | BUF -3.5 |
| 2022-01-02 | 2021 Wk 17 | ATL 15 @ BUF 29 | BUF | BUF -14 |
| 2017-10-01 | 2017 Wk 4 | BUF 23 @ ATL 17 | BUF | ATL -8 |
| 2013-12-01 | 2013 Wk 13 | ATL 34 @ BUF 31 | ATL | BUF -5 |
| 2009-12-27 | 2009 Wk 16 | BUF 3 @ ATL 31 | ATL | ATL -9 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away