ATLCHI
Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
65% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 65% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Simulation: Bears win 6,490 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bears about 1.9 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Falcons 19th (-0.3).
- Home field: Bears play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Bears passing game (10th in EPA) faces the Falcons defense that ranks 19th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Upset odds: Falcons win 3,510 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Bears rank 26th in field goal percentage (73.3%).
- Single-game variance: one turnover or special-teams play can swing an NFL game by a touchdown.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -4.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.1 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · CHI n/a | ATL 35% · CHI 65% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +185 · CHI -185 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 27, ATL 22.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 11 and CHI by 22.
Side by side
| ATL | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 2026 Wk 6 | CHI 31 @ ATL 23 | CHI | CHI -1.5 |
| 2023-12-31 | 2023 Wk 17 | ATL 17 @ CHI 37 | CHI | CHI -3 |
| 2022-11-20 | 2022 Wk 11 | CHI 24 @ ATL 27 | ATL | ATL -3 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | CHI 30 @ ATL 26 | CHI | ATL -2.5 |
| 2017-09-10 | 2017 Wk 1 | ATL 23 @ CHI 17 | ATL | ATL -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away