ATLCLE
Atlanta Falcons @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Falcons
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Falcons can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Falcons about 1.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Falcons win 5,290 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to Falcons in our ratings.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Browns 17th (3.6).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Falcons rank 22nd (7.4%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
Disadvantages Why the Falcons may not
- Upset odds: Browns win 4,710 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Falcons 22nd (5.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Falcons lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: Falcons rank 25th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.07).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -0.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.9 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · CLE n/a | ATL 53% · CLE 47% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL -112 · CLE +112 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 21, ATL 22.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 17 and CLE by 16.
Side by side
| ATL | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | CLE 20 @ ATL 23 | ATL | CLE -1 |
| 2018-11-11 | 2018 Wk 10 | ATL 16 @ CLE 28 | CLE | ATL -5.5 |
| 2014-11-23 | 2014 Wk 12 | CLE 26 @ ATL 24 | CLE | ATL -3 |
| 2010-10-10 | 2010 Wk 5 | ATL 20 @ CLE 10 | ATL | ATL -3 |
| 2006-11-12 | 2006 Wk 10 | CLE 17 @ ATL 13 | CLE | ATL -9 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away