ATLDEN
Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 2.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Broncos win 6,630 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Falcons -2.0.
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Falcons 21st (-0.4).
- Home field: Broncos play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Upset odds: Falcons win 3,370 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -5 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.7 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · DEN n/a | ATL 34% · DEN 66% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +197 · DEN -197 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 24, ATL 20.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 11 and DEN by 22.
Side by side
| ATL | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | ATL 6 @ DEN 38 | DEN | DEN -2 |
| 2020-11-08 | 2020 Wk 9 | DEN 27 @ ATL 34 | ATL | ATL -4.5 |
| 2016-10-09 | 2016 Wk 5 | ATL 23 @ DEN 16 | ATL | DEN -3.5 |
| 2012-09-17 | 2012 Wk 2 | DEN 21 @ ATL 27 | ATL | ATL -3 |
| 2008-11-16 | 2008 Wk 11 | DEN 24 @ ATL 20 | DEN | ATL -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away